COVID-19 Mortality Risk Calculation
Based on the information you have provided, the tool estimates that you have 1.5 (95% CI: 1.5 - 1.5 ) times the risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to the average risk for the US population.
Based on the estimated risk, you are categorized to be at Moderately elevated risk based on the following chart:
|Fold-Risk||Risk Category||Color Code|
|<= 1.2||Close to or lower than average|
|> 1.2 to <= 2||Moderately elevated|
|> 2 to <= 5||Substantially elevated|
|> 5 to <= 10||High|
|> 10||Very High|
Further, based on the information available from pandemic projections in your state of residence, the tool estimates an absolute rate of mortality of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.5 - 1.5 ) per 2.0 individuals in subgroups of the population with a similar risk profile to yours during the period of 02/20/2021 - 03/12/2021. This estimate is calculated based on the CDC's Ensemble mortality forecast data..
*95% CI: Error bounds with 95% confidence.
Johns Hopkins & University of Maryland Research Team
The tool is developed with supervision from Nilanjan Chatterjee, PhD, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Biostatistics and Oncology, School of Medicine. Dr. Chatterjee's research over many years in the past have focused on developing and evaluating models for the assessment for individualized risks of non-communicable diseases integrating information on genetic, demographic, anthropometric, life-style and environmental factors. The trainees who led various data analyses included:
- Neha Agarwala, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
- Jin Jin, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Post-doctoral Fellow
- Prosenjit Kundu, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Post-doctoral Fellow
- Yuqi Zhang, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University
The webtool was developed by Benjamin Harvey, DSc, a Senior Research Associate in the Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, and the lead data scientist for the laboratory of Nilanjan Chatterjee, PhD
Understanding Our Methodology
Please find more information on our risk-score calculation below.
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